Who’s in control of Japanese monetary policy? Tokyo or Washington?

Before the unexpected intervention in Japan’s foreign exchange market by the US Treasury Department on July 31 – the first time both countries joined forces to support the yen via outright purchases since 1998 – the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates at its policy meeting on September 17-18 was less than 30 per cent. Fast forward to today, and the chances of an increase have shot up to almost 100 per cent. In fact, expectations have shifted so dramatically that bond markets...