Is Russia’s fuel crisis a temporary squeeze or the collapse of an industry? Two leading economists debated the question, unable to agree on how much refining capacity is left.

On August 17, Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said on The Breakfast Show that despite Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries, Russia’s refining output remains fairly high. By his estimate, refining has fallen by only 25–28%. Two days later, economic commentator Vyacheslav Shiryaev criticized Vakulenko on the same program, calling his remarks “nonsense.” He said 65–70% of Russia’s oil refining has been knocked out, and that any optimistic assessment only helps prolong the war. After trading criticism at a distance, the two agreed to debate — first in writing, then in person on The Breakfast Show. Here’s what came of it.